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Niger Tornadoes vs MFM — NPFL 2019

Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
MFM
MFM
K. Adeniji 36'
R. Eguavoen 14'
3/2/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 16FIFA Goal Project Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Niger Tornadoes57%
×Draw29%
MFM14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niger Tornadoes
1.32
MFM
0.51

Niger Tornadoes creates 159% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 61 away

creates per match

Niger Tornadoes
1.24
MFM
0.49

allows per match

Niger Tornadoes
0.52
MFM
1.41

finishing

Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par
MFM+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger Tornadoes ↓

MFM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Niger Tornadoes or draw
86%
Niger Tornadoes or MFM
71%
Draw or MFM
43%

Winning margin

Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+
28%
MFM wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals
73%
Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals
38%
Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals
15%
MFM 1+ goals
40%
MFM 2+ goals
9%
MFM 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)
80%
MFM (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger Tornadoes at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.52 · 96 matches

MFM away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger Tornadoes attack 1.24 + MFM defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

MFM attack 0.49 + Niger Tornadoes defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Niger Tornadoes scores more
57%
level
29%
MFM scores more
14%

Niger Tornadoes at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Niger Tornadoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
R. Eguavoen
36'
K. Adeniji
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niger Tornadoes vs MFM

Niger Tornadoes and MFM drew 1-1 in NPFL on March 2, 2022.

Goals: R. Eguavoen (14'), K. Adeniji (36').

The match was played at FIFA Goal Project Stadium in Abuja.