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Niger Tornadoes vs Kun Khalifat FC — NPFL 2019

Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kun Khalifat FC
Kun Khalifat FC
10/5/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 7Bako Kontagora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Niger Tornadoes50%
×Draw30%
Kun Khalifat FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niger Tornadoes
1.26
Kun Khalifat FC
0.68

Niger Tornadoes creates 85% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 18 away

creates per match

Niger Tornadoes
1.24
Kun Khalifat FC
0.83

allows per match

Niger Tornadoes
0.52
Kun Khalifat FC
1.28

finishing

Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par
Kun Khalifat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger Tornadoes ↓

Kun Khalifat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Niger Tornadoes or draw
80%
Niger Tornadoes or Kun Khalifat FC
70%
Draw or Kun Khalifat FC
50%

Winning margin

Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+
23%
Kun Khalifat FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals
72%
Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals
36%
Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals
13%
Kun Khalifat FC 1+ goals
49%
Kun Khalifat FC 2+ goals
15%
Kun Khalifat FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)
71%
Kun Khalifat FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger Tornadoes at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.52 · 96 matches

Kun Khalifat FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger Tornadoes attack 1.24 + Kun Khalifat FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.26

Kun Khalifat FC attack 0.83 + Niger Tornadoes defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Niger Tornadoes scores more
50%
level
30%
Kun Khalifat FC scores more
20%

Niger Tornadoes at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Niger Tornadoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niger Tornadoes vs Kun Khalifat FC

Niger Tornadoes and Kun Khalifat FC drew 1-1 in NPFL on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Bako Kontagora Stadium.