Niger Tornadoes 0–0 Ikorodu City: Result & Stats

Niger Tornadoes

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ikorodu City

11/23/2024

NPFL · Round 13Bako Kontagora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Niger Tornadoes56%

×Draw28%

Ikorodu City16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niger TornadoesExpected goals in this matchIkorodu City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.60

Niger Tornadoes

1.37

Ikorodu City

0.60

Niger Tornadoes creates 128% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 38 away

1.24

creates per match

0.68

0.52

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Niger Tornadoes

1.24

Ikorodu City

0.68

allows per match

Niger Tornadoes

0.52

Ikorodu City

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par

Ikorodu City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger Tornadoes ↓

Ikorodu City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Niger Tornadoes or draw

84%

Niger Tornadoes or Ikorodu City

72%

Draw or Ikorodu City

44%

Winning margin

Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+

28%

Ikorodu City wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals

75%

Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals

40%

Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals

16%

Ikorodu City 1+ goals

45%

Ikorodu City 2+ goals

12%

Ikorodu City 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)

77%

Ikorodu City (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger Tornadoes at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.52 · 96 matches

Ikorodu City away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger Tornadoes attack 1.24 + Ikorodu City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.37

Ikorodu City attack 0.68 + Niger Tornadoes defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Niger Tornadoes scores more

56%

level

28%

Ikorodu City scores more

16%

Niger Tornadoes at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Niger Tornadoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff