Niger Tornadoes 5–0 Gombe United: Result & Stats

Niger Tornadoes

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Gombe United

C. Jephta 86', 6'

B. Usman 76' (pen)

M. Hussaini 50'

C. Ernest 10'

4/7/2024

NPFL · Round 29Ahmadu Bello Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Niger Tornadoes66%

×Draw24%

Gombe United10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niger TornadoesExpected goals in this matchGombe United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.44

Niger Tornadoes

1.57

Gombe United

0.44

Niger Tornadoes creates 257% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 59 away

1.25

creates per match

0.36

0.52

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Niger Tornadoes

1.25

Gombe United

0.36

allows per match

Niger Tornadoes

0.52

Gombe United

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par

Gombe United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger Tornadoes ↓

Gombe United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Niger Tornadoes or draw

90%

Niger Tornadoes or Gombe United

76%

Draw or Gombe United

34%

Winning margin

Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+

36%

Gombe United wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals

79%

Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals

46%

Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals

21%

Gombe United 1+ goals

36%

Gombe United 2+ goals

7%

Gombe United 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)

87%

Gombe United (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger Tornadoes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.52 · 97 matches

Gombe United away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.90 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger Tornadoes attack 1.25 + Gombe United defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.57

Gombe United attack 0.36 + Niger Tornadoes defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Niger Tornadoes scores more

66%

level

24%

Gombe United scores more

10%

Niger Tornadoes at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Niger Tornadoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

C. Jephta

10'

C. Ernest

50'

M. Hussaini

76'

B. UsmanPenalty

86'

C. Jephta

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff