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Niger Tornadoes vs Enugu Rangers — NPFL 2019

Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
3/3/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 23Ahmadu Bello Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Niger Tornadoes50%
×Draw31%
Enugu Rangers19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niger Tornadoes
1.19
Enugu Rangers
0.61

Niger Tornadoes creates 95% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 130 away

creates per match

Niger Tornadoes
1.24
Enugu Rangers
0.71

allows per match

Niger Tornadoes
0.52
Enugu Rangers
1.13

finishing

Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par
Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger Tornadoes ↓

Enugu Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Niger Tornadoes or draw
81%
Niger Tornadoes or Enugu Rangers
69%
Draw or Enugu Rangers
50%

Winning margin

Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+
22%
Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals
70%
Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals
33%
Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals
12%
Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
46%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
13%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)
73%
Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger Tornadoes at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.52 · 96 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger Tornadoes attack 1.24 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Niger Tornadoes defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Niger Tornadoes scores more
50%
level
31%
Enugu Rangers scores more
19%

Niger Tornadoes at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Niger Tornadoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niger Tornadoes vs Enugu Rangers

Enugu Rangers beat Niger Tornadoes 2-0 in NPFL on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Ahmadu Bello Stadium in Kaduna.