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Niger Tornadoes vs El Kanemi Warriors — NPFL 2019

Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
CANC
00:00
El Kanemi Warriors
El Kanemi Warriors
8/12/2018NPFLNPFL · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Niger Tornadoes64%
×Draw25%
El Kanemi Warriors11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niger Tornadoes
1.53
El Kanemi Warriors
0.46

Niger Tornadoes creates 233% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 65 away

creates per match

Niger Tornadoes
1.24
El Kanemi Warriors
0.42

allows per match

Niger Tornadoes
0.51
El Kanemi Warriors
1.82

finishing

Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par
El Kanemi Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger Tornadoes ↓

El Kanemi Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Niger Tornadoes or draw
89%
Niger Tornadoes or El Kanemi Warriors
75%
Draw or El Kanemi Warriors
36%

Winning margin

Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+
35%
El Kanemi Warriors wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals
78%
Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals
45%
Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals
20%
El Kanemi Warriors 1+ goals
37%
El Kanemi Warriors 2+ goals
8%
El Kanemi Warriors 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)
85%
El Kanemi Warriors (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger Tornadoes at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.51 · 99 matches

El Kanemi Warriors away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.82 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger Tornadoes attack 1.24 + El Kanemi Warriors defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.53

El Kanemi Warriors attack 0.42 + Niger Tornadoes defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Niger Tornadoes scores more
64%
level
25%
El Kanemi Warriors scores more
11%

Niger Tornadoes at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Niger Tornadoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Niger Tornadoes host El Kanemi Warriors

August 12, 2018: Niger Tornadoes take on El Kanemi Warriors in NPFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.