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Niger Tornadoes vs Doma United — NPFL 2019

Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Doma United
Doma United
M. Idris 8'
1/19/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 2Ahmadu Bello Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Niger Tornadoes61%
×Draw26%
Doma United12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niger Tornadoes
1.46
Doma United
0.49

Niger Tornadoes creates 198% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 28 away

creates per match

Niger Tornadoes
1.24
Doma United
0.46

allows per match

Niger Tornadoes
0.52
Doma United
1.68

finishing

Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par
Doma United+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger Tornadoes ↓

Doma United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Niger Tornadoes or draw
88%
Niger Tornadoes or Doma United
74%
Draw or Doma United
39%

Winning margin

Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+
32%
Doma United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals
77%
Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals
43%
Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals
18%
Doma United 1+ goals
39%
Doma United 2+ goals
9%
Doma United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)
83%
Doma United (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger Tornadoes at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.52 · 96 matches

Doma United away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger Tornadoes attack 1.24 + Doma United defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

Doma United attack 0.46 + Niger Tornadoes defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Niger Tornadoes scores more
61%
level
26%
Doma United scores more
12%

Niger Tornadoes at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Niger Tornadoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
M. Idris
43'
57'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niger Tornadoes vs Doma United

Niger Tornadoes beat Doma United 1-0 in NPFL on January 19, 2023.

Goals: M. Idris (8').

The match was played at Ahmadu Bello Stadium in Kaduna.