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Niger Tornadoes vs Bendel Insurance — NPFL 2019

Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bendel Insurance
Bendel Insurance
2/1/2026NPFLNPFL · Round 24Bako Kontagora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Niger Tornadoes52%
×Draw31%
Bendel Insurance17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niger Tornadoes
1.19
Bendel Insurance
0.56

Niger Tornadoes creates 112% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 79 away

creates per match

Niger Tornadoes
1.24
Bendel Insurance
0.61

allows per match

Niger Tornadoes
0.52
Bendel Insurance
1.13

finishing

Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par
Bendel Insurance+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger Tornadoes ↓

Bendel Insurance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Niger Tornadoes or draw
83%
Niger Tornadoes or Bendel Insurance
69%
Draw or Bendel Insurance
48%

Winning margin

Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+
23%
Bendel Insurance wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals
70%
Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals
33%
Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals
12%
Bendel Insurance 1+ goals
43%
Bendel Insurance 2+ goals
11%
Bendel Insurance 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)
75%
Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger Tornadoes at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.52 · 96 matches

Bendel Insurance away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger Tornadoes attack 1.24 + Bendel Insurance defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Bendel Insurance attack 0.61 + Niger Tornadoes defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Niger Tornadoes scores more
52%
level
31%
Bendel Insurance scores more
17%

Niger Tornadoes at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Niger Tornadoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niger Tornadoes vs Bendel Insurance

Niger Tornadoes and Bendel Insurance drew 2-2 in NPFL on February 1, 2026.

The match was played at Bako Kontagora Stadium.