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Niger Tornadoes vs Bayelsa United — NPFL 2019

Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bayelsa United
Bayelsa United
9/7/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 3Bako Kontagora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Niger Tornadoes55%
×Draw29%
Bayelsa United16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niger Tornadoes
1.32
Bayelsa United
0.56

Niger Tornadoes creates 136% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 66 away

creates per match

Niger Tornadoes
1.24
Bayelsa United
0.61

allows per match

Niger Tornadoes
0.52
Bayelsa United
1.41

finishing

Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par
Bayelsa United+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger Tornadoes ↓

Bayelsa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Niger Tornadoes or draw
84%
Niger Tornadoes or Bayelsa United
71%
Draw or Bayelsa United
45%

Winning margin

Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+
27%
Bayelsa United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals
73%
Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals
38%
Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals
15%
Bayelsa United 1+ goals
43%
Bayelsa United 2+ goals
11%
Bayelsa United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)
78%
Bayelsa United (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger Tornadoes at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.52 · 96 matches

Bayelsa United away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.41 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger Tornadoes attack 1.24 + Bayelsa United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bayelsa United attack 0.61 + Niger Tornadoes defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Niger Tornadoes scores more
55%
level
29%
Bayelsa United scores more
16%

Niger Tornadoes at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Niger Tornadoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niger Tornadoes vs Bayelsa United

Niger Tornadoes beat Bayelsa United 1-0 in NPFL on September 7, 2025.

The match was played at Bako Kontagora Stadium.