Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Niger Tornadoes vs Akwa United — NPFL 2019

Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Akwa United
Akwa United
1/30/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 9Bako Kontagora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Niger Tornadoes53%
×Draw30%
Akwa United17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niger Tornadoes
1.27
Akwa United
0.59

Niger Tornadoes creates 115% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 112 away

creates per match

Niger Tornadoes
1.25
Akwa United
0.66

allows per match

Niger Tornadoes
0.52
Akwa United
1.29

finishing

Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par
Akwa United+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger Tornadoes ↓

Akwa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Niger Tornadoes or draw
83%
Niger Tornadoes or Akwa United
70%
Draw or Akwa United
47%

Winning margin

Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+
25%
Akwa United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals
72%
Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals
36%
Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals
14%
Akwa United 1+ goals
45%
Akwa United 2+ goals
12%
Akwa United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)
75%
Akwa United (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger Tornadoes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.52 · 97 matches

Akwa United away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.29 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger Tornadoes attack 1.25 + Akwa United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Akwa United attack 0.66 + Niger Tornadoes defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Niger Tornadoes scores more
53%
level
30%
Akwa United scores more
17%

Niger Tornadoes at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Niger Tornadoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Niger Tornadoes 0–1 Akwa United

Akwa United beat Niger Tornadoes 1-0 in NPFL on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Bako Kontagora Stadium in Minna.