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Akwa United vs Niger Tornadoes — NPFL 2019

Akwa United
Akwa United
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
F. Ubong 76' (pen), 67', 37'
O. Kabir 41'
C. Jephta 88'
4/16/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 30Godswill Akpabio International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Akwa United61%
×Draw25%
Niger Tornadoes14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa United
1.58
Niger Tornadoes
0.59

Akwa United creates 168% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 97 away

creates per match

Akwa United
1.62
Niger Tornadoes
0.58

allows per match

Akwa United
0.61
Niger Tornadoes
1.53

finishing

Akwa United+0.00on par
Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa United ↓

Niger Tornadoes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Akwa United or draw
86%
Akwa United or Niger Tornadoes
75%
Draw or Niger Tornadoes
39%

Winning margin

Akwa United wins by 2+
34%
Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Akwa United 1+ goals
79%
Akwa United 2+ goals
47%
Akwa United 3+ goals
21%
Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals
45%
Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals
12%
Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Akwa United (draw refunded)
82%
Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

Niger Tornadoes away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa United attack 1.62 + Niger Tornadoes defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Niger Tornadoes attack 0.58 + Akwa United defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Akwa United scores more
61%
level
25%
Niger Tornadoes scores more
14%

Akwa United at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Akwa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
F. Ubong
41'
O. Kabir
42'
50'
U. Essien
52'
A. Emeka← A. Emeka
52'
S. Owello← S. Owello
56'
A. Emeka
67'
F. Ubong
70'
S. Chigoziem← S. Chigoziem
71'
I. Okoye← I. Okoye
71'
A. Khalid← A. Khalid
76'
F. UbongPenalty
81'
A. Anioke← A. Anioke
81'
G. Heutchou← D. Ojo
88'
C. Jephta
90'
U. Essien
90'
U. Essien
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Akwa United 4–1 Niger Tornadoes

Akwa United beat Niger Tornadoes 4-1 in NPFL on April 16, 2024.

Goals: F. Ubong (37', 67', 76' pen), O. Kabir (41'), C. Jephta (88').

The match was played at Godswill Akpabio International Stadium in Uyo.