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Niger Tornadoes vs Akwa Starlets — NPFL 2019

Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
2/19/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 9Ahmadu Bello Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Niger Tornadoes59%
×Draw27%
Akwa Starlets14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niger Tornadoes
1.42
Akwa Starlets
0.52

Niger Tornadoes creates 173% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 60 away

creates per match

Niger Tornadoes
1.24
Akwa Starlets
0.52

allows per match

Niger Tornadoes
0.52
Akwa Starlets
1.60

finishing

Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par
Akwa Starlets+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger Tornadoes ↓

Akwa Starlets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Niger Tornadoes or draw
86%
Niger Tornadoes or Akwa Starlets
73%
Draw or Akwa Starlets
41%

Winning margin

Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+
30%
Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals
76%
Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals
41%
Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals
17%
Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
41%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
10%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)
81%
Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger Tornadoes at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.52 · 96 matches

Akwa Starlets away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger Tornadoes attack 1.24 + Akwa Starlets defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.42

Akwa Starlets attack 0.52 + Niger Tornadoes defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Niger Tornadoes scores more
59%
level
27%
Akwa Starlets scores more
14%

Niger Tornadoes at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Niger Tornadoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Niger Tornadoes 1–0 Akwa Starlets

Niger Tornadoes beat Akwa Starlets 1-0 in NPFL on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Ahmadu Bello Stadium in Kaduna.