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Niğde Anadolu vs Yomraspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Niğde Anadolu
Niğde Anadolu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Yomraspor
Yomraspor
9/28/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundNiğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Kampüs Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Niğde Anadolu35%
×Draw23%
Yomraspor41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niğde Anadolu
1.52
Yomraspor
1.67

Yomraspor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Niğde Anadolu
1.67
Yomraspor
1.00

allows per match

Niğde Anadolu
2.33
Yomraspor
1.38

finishing

Niğde Anadolu+0.00on par
Yomraspor+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niğde Anadolu ↓

Yomraspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Niğde Anadolu or draw
59%
Niğde Anadolu or Yomraspor
77%
Draw or Yomraspor
65%

Winning margin

Niğde Anadolu wins by 2+
17%
Yomraspor wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Niğde Anadolu 1+ goals
78%
Niğde Anadolu 2+ goals
45%
Niğde Anadolu 3+ goals
20%
Yomraspor 1+ goals
81%
Yomraspor 2+ goals
50%
Yomraspor 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Niğde Anadolu (draw refunded)
46%
Yomraspor (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niğde Anadolu at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Yomraspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niğde Anadolu attack 1.67 + Yomraspor defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Yomraspor attack 1.00 + Niğde Anadolu defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Niğde Anadolu scores more
35%
level
23%
Yomraspor scores more
41%

Yomraspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Yomraspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niğde Anadolu vs Yomraspor

Niğde Anadolu beat Yomraspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Kampüs Stadı in Niğde.