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Niğde Anadolu vs Bodrum FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Niğde Anadolu
Niğde Anadolu
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Bodrum FK
Bodrum FK
9/27/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundNiğde 5 Şubat Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Niğde Anadolu29%
×Draw21%
Bodrum FK50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niğde Anadolu
1.64
Bodrum FK
2.17

Bodrum FK creates 32% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Niğde Anadolu
1.67
Bodrum FK
2.00

allows per match

Niğde Anadolu
2.33
Bodrum FK
1.60

finishing

Niğde Anadolu+0.00on par
Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niğde Anadolu ↓

Bodrum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Niğde Anadolu or draw
50%
Niğde Anadolu or Bodrum FK
79%
Draw or Bodrum FK
71%

Winning margin

Niğde Anadolu wins by 2+
14%
Bodrum FK wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Niğde Anadolu 1+ goals
81%
Niğde Anadolu 2+ goals
49%
Niğde Anadolu 3+ goals
23%
Bodrum FK 1+ goals
89%
Bodrum FK 2+ goals
64%
Bodrum FK 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Niğde Anadolu (draw refunded)
37%
Bodrum FK (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niğde Anadolu at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Bodrum FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niğde Anadolu attack 1.67 + Bodrum FK defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Bodrum FK attack 2.00 + Niğde Anadolu defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Niğde Anadolu scores more
29%
level
21%
Bodrum FK scores more
50%

Bodrum FK at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Niğde Anadolu 0–4 Bodrum FK

Bodrum FK beat Niğde Anadolu 4-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 27, 2018.

The match was played at Niğde 5 Şubat Stadı in Niğde.