Niğde Anadolu 0–0 Antalyaspor: Result & Stats

Niğde Anadolu

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Antalyaspor

10/29/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundNiğde 5 Şubat Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Niğde Anadolu37%

×Draw23%

Antalyaspor40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niğde AnadoluExpected goals in this matchAntalyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.70

Niğde Anadolu

1.62

Antalyaspor

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

1.67

creates per match

1.07

2.33

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Niğde Anadolu

1.67

Antalyaspor

1.07

allows per match

Niğde Anadolu

2.33

Antalyaspor

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niğde Anadolu+0.00on par

Antalyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niğde Anadolu ↓

Antalyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Niğde Anadolu or draw

60%

Niğde Anadolu or Antalyaspor

77%

Draw or Antalyaspor

63%

Winning margin

Niğde Anadolu wins by 2+

18%

Antalyaspor wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Niğde Anadolu 1+ goals

80%

Niğde Anadolu 2+ goals

48%

Niğde Anadolu 3+ goals

22%

Antalyaspor 1+ goals

82%

Antalyaspor 2+ goals

51%

Antalyaspor 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Niğde Anadolu (draw refunded)

48%

Antalyaspor (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niğde Anadolu at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Antalyaspor away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niğde Anadolu attack 1.67 + Antalyaspor defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.62

Antalyaspor attack 1.07 + Niğde Anadolu defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Niğde Anadolu scores more

37%

level

23%

Antalyaspor scores more

40%

Antalyaspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Antalyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff