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Niendorfer TSV vs ETSV Hamburg — Oberliga - Hamburg 2026

Niendorfer TSV
Niendorfer TSV
Preview
12:00
ETSV Hamburg
ETSV Hamburg
4/4/2027Oberliga - HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 28
Big match
59%
ETSV Hamburg
model favours
22%19%59%

Their last 7 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
76%
over 2.5 goals
71%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Niendorfer TSV22%
×Draw19%
ETSV Hamburg59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niendorfer TSV
1.49
ETSV Hamburg
2.50

ETSV Hamburg creates 68% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

creates per match

Niendorfer TSV
1.41
ETSV Hamburg
3.00

allows per match

Niendorfer TSV
2.00
ETSV Hamburg
1.57

finishing

Niendorfer TSV+0.00on par
ETSV Hamburg+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niendorfer TSV ↓

ETSV Hamburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Niendorfer TSV or draw
41%
Niendorfer TSV or ETSV Hamburg
81%
Draw or ETSV Hamburg
78%

Winning margin

Niendorfer TSV wins by 2+
10%
ETSV Hamburg wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Niendorfer TSV 1+ goals
77%
Niendorfer TSV 2+ goals
44%
Niendorfer TSV 3+ goals
19%
ETSV Hamburg 1+ goals
92%
ETSV Hamburg 2+ goals
71%
ETSV Hamburg 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Niendorfer TSV (draw refunded)
27%
ETSV Hamburg (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niendorfer TSV at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

ETSV Hamburg away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niendorfer TSV attack 1.41 + ETSV Hamburg defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.49

ETSV Hamburg attack 3.00 + Niendorfer TSV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Niendorfer TSV scores more
22%
level
19%
ETSV Hamburg scores more
59%

ETSV Hamburg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "ETSV Hamburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
TSV
WWLWL
Hamburg
WWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Niendorfer TSV face ETSV Hamburg (Oberliga - Hamburg)

Oberliga - Hamburg returns with Niendorfer TSV hosting ETSV Hamburg. Match starts April 4, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.