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ETSV Hamburg vs Niendorfer TSV — Oberliga - Hamburg 2026

ETSV Hamburg
ETSV Hamburg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Niendorfer TSV
Niendorfer TSV
L. S. Korth L. D. 59'
12/1/2024Oberliga - HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 19Kunstrasenplatz Mittlerer Landweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ETSV Hamburg46%
×Draw21%
Niendorfer TSV33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ETSV Hamburg
2.08
Niendorfer TSV
1.75

ETSV Hamburg creates 19% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

creates per match

ETSV Hamburg
2.43
Niendorfer TSV
1.94

allows per match

ETSV Hamburg
1.57
Niendorfer TSV
1.72

finishing

ETSV Hamburg+0.00on par
Niendorfer TSV+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ETSV Hamburg ↓

Niendorfer TSV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

ETSV Hamburg or draw
67%
ETSV Hamburg or Niendorfer TSV
79%
Draw or Niendorfer TSV
54%

Winning margin

ETSV Hamburg wins by 2+
26%
Niendorfer TSV wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

ETSV Hamburg 1+ goals
87%
ETSV Hamburg 2+ goals
61%
ETSV Hamburg 3+ goals
34%
Niendorfer TSV 1+ goals
83%
Niendorfer TSV 2+ goals
52%
Niendorfer TSV 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

ETSV Hamburg (draw refunded)
58%
Niendorfer TSV (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ETSV Hamburg at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Niendorfer TSV away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ETSV Hamburg attack 2.43 + Niendorfer TSV defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.08

Niendorfer TSV attack 1.94 + ETSV Hamburg defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ETSV Hamburg scores more
46%
level
21%
Niendorfer TSV scores more
33%

ETSV Hamburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ETSV Hamburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
L. S. Korth L. D.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hamburg: ETSV Hamburg 0–1 Niendorfer TSV

Niendorfer TSV beat ETSV Hamburg 1-0 in Oberliga - Hamburg on December 1, 2024.

Goals: L. S. Korth L. D. (59').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Mittlerer Landweg in Hamburg.