Niendorfer TSV U19 1–5 Wolfsburg U19

Niendorfer TSV U19

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Wolfsburg U19

M. Gries 46'

A. Abdijanovic 73'

L. Jastremski 63', 17'

I. Šarčević 56'

O. Pohlmann 16'

9/28/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 7Sportanlage Sachsenweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Niendorfer TSV U1913%

×Draw16%

Wolfsburg U1972%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niendorfer TSV U19Expected goals in this matchWolfsburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

2.76

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.09

Wolfsburg U19

2.76

Wolfsburg U19 creates 153% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 78 away

1.00

creates per match

2.40

3.13

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.00

Wolfsburg U19

2.40

allows per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

3.13

Wolfsburg U19

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niendorfer TSV U19 ↓

Wolfsburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Niendorfer TSV U19 or draw

28%

Niendorfer TSV U19 or Wolfsburg U19

84%

Draw or Wolfsburg U19

87%

Winning margin

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+

4%

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals

66%

Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals

30%

Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals

10%

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

94%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

76%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)

15%

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niendorfer TSV U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.13 · 31 matches

Wolfsburg U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.19 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 1.00 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.40 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more

13%

level

16%

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

72%

Wolfsburg U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

O. Pohlmann

17'

L. Jastremski

46'

P. Sarrasch← T. Backhaus

46'

M. Gries

56'

I. Šarčević

59'

N. Wahlig← E. da Silva

63'

D. Berendsohn← P. Mahncke

63'

L. Jastremski

67'

F. Kleeschätzky← N. Mai

67'

J. Weimann← I. Šarčević

73'

A. Abdijanovic

75'

A. Yago← J. Mensah

79'

T. Burmeister← A. Abdijanovic

80'

M. Lahrtz← N. Radovic

Niendorfer

Wolfsburg

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: A. Prohn

46'▲P. Sarrasch←▼T. Backhaus

63'▲D. Berendsohn←▼P. Mahncke

75'▲A. Yago←▼J. Mensah

80'▲M. Lahrtz←▼N. Radovic

Niendorfer TSV U19 substitutes

SarraschBerendsohnYagoLahrtzGraefeArizanovAhmadi

Manager: I. Schlösser

59'▲N. Wahlig←▼E. da Silva

67'▲F. Kleeschätzky←▼N. Mai

67'▲J. Weimann←▼I. Šarčević

79'▲T. Burmeister←▼A. Abdijanovic

Wolfsburg U19 substitutes

WahligKleeschätzkyWeimannBurmeisterPolsterVukancicWienhold

Match Recap: Niendorfer TSV U19 vs Wolfsburg U19

Wolfsburg U19 beat Niendorfer TSV U19 5-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 28, 2019.

Goals: O. Pohlmann (16'), L. Jastremski (17', 63'), M. Gries (46'), I. Šarčević (56'), A. Abdijanovic (73').

The match was played at Sportanlage Sachsenweg in Hamburg.

Niendorfer TSV U19 vs Wolfsburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Niendorfer TSV U19 vs Wolfsburg U19