Niendorfer TSV U19 2–4 Union Berlin U19

Niendorfer TSV U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Union Berlin U19

J. Mensah 83'

M. Gries 62'

M. Ihbe 86'

F. Asllani 85'

T. Maciejewski 39'

E. Aksakal 30'

8/17/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 2Sportanlage Sachsenweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Niendorfer TSV U1919%

×Draw18%

Union Berlin U1963%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niendorfer TSV U19Expected goals in this matchUnion Berlin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.54

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.33

Union Berlin U19

2.54

Union Berlin U19 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 76 away

0.97

creates per match

1.95

3.13

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

0.97

Union Berlin U19

1.95

allows per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

3.13

Union Berlin U19

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niendorfer TSV U19 ↓

Union Berlin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Niendorfer TSV U19 or draw

37%

Niendorfer TSV U19 or Union Berlin U19

82%

Draw or Union Berlin U19

81%

Winning margin

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+

8%

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals

74%

Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals

38%

Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals

15%

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

92%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

72%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niendorfer TSV U19 at home — creates 0.97, concedes 3.13 · 30 matches

Union Berlin U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.70 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 0.97 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.33

Union Berlin U19 attack 1.95 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more

19%

level

18%

Union Berlin U19 scores more

63%

Union Berlin U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

E. Aksakal

39'

T. Maciejewski

46'

D. Abdullatif← D. Berendsohn

46'

L. Arizanov← T. Backhaus

62'

M. Gries

68'

D. Maksimovic← A. Cevdet

73'

M. Ihbe← E. Aksakal

79'

L. Czosnyka← T. Maciejewski

80'

83'

85'

86'

86'

87'

J. Reinhardt← Ruben Soares

Niendorfer

Union

⚽

▼

Maciejews

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Prohn

46'▲D. Abdullatif←▼D. Berendsohn

46'▲L. Arizanov←▼T. Backhaus

68'▲D. Maksimovic←▼A. Cevdet

80'▲M. Lahrtz←▼H. Müller

Niendorfer TSV U19 substitutes

AbdullatifArizanovMaksimovicLahrtzRaufWeberGumpert

Manager: A. Vilk

73'▲M. Ihbe←▼E. Aksakal

79'▲L. Czosnyka←▼T. Maciejewski

86'▲J. Riecke←▼L. Haase

87'▲J. Reinhardt←▼Ruben Soares

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

IhbeCzosnykaRieckeReinhardtLudosanDomannDag

U19 Bundesliga: Niendorfer TSV U19 2–4 Union Berlin U19

Union Berlin U19 beat Niendorfer TSV U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on August 17, 2019.

Goals: E. Aksakal (30'), T. Maciejewski (39'), M. Gries (62'), J. Mensah (83'), F. Asllani (85'), M. Ihbe (86').

The match was played at Sportanlage Sachsenweg in Hamburg.

Niendorfer TSV U19 vs Union Berlin U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Niendorfer TSV U19 2–4 Union Berlin U19