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Niendorfer TSV U19 vs Hannover 96 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Niendorfer TSV U19
Niendorfer TSV U19
CANC
09:00
Hannover 96 U19
Hannover 96 U19
5/9/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 26Sportanlage Sachsenweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Niendorfer TSV U1919%
×Draw18%
Hannover 96 U1963%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niendorfer TSV U19
1.38
Hannover 96 U19
2.59

Hannover 96 U19 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 73 away

creates per match

Niendorfer TSV U19
0.97
Hannover 96 U19
2.05

allows per match

Niendorfer TSV U19
3.13
Hannover 96 U19
1.78

finishing

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par
Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niendorfer TSV U19 ↓

Hannover 96 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Niendorfer TSV U19 or draw
37%
Niendorfer TSV U19 or Hannover 96 U19
82%
Draw or Hannover 96 U19
81%

Winning margin

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+
8%
Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals
75%
Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals
40%
Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals
16%
Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals
92%
Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals
73%
Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)
23%
Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niendorfer TSV U19 at home — creates 0.97, concedes 3.13 · 30 matches

Hannover 96 U19 away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.78 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 0.97 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.38

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.05 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more
19%
level
18%
Hannover 96 U19 scores more
63%

Hannover 96 U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Niendorfer TSV U19 host Hannover 96 U19

May 9, 2020: Niendorfer TSV U19 take on Hannover 96 U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Niendorfer TSV U19 host Hannover 96 U19 at Sportanlage Sachsenweg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.