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Niendorfer TSV U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Niendorfer TSV U19
Niendorfer TSV U19
CANC
00:00
Chemnitzer FC U19
Chemnitzer FC U19
4/25/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 24Rasenplatz Steinwiesenweg 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Niendorfer TSV U1933%
×Draw20%
Chemnitzer FC U1947%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niendorfer TSV U19
1.89
Chemnitzer FC U19
2.27

Chemnitzer FC U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 53 away

creates per match

Niendorfer TSV U19
1.00
Chemnitzer FC U19
1.42

allows per match

Niendorfer TSV U19
3.13
Chemnitzer FC U19
2.77

finishing

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par
Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niendorfer TSV U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Niendorfer TSV U19 or draw
53%
Niendorfer TSV U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19
80%
Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19
67%

Winning margin

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+
17%
Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals
85%
Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals
56%
Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals
29%
Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals
90%
Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals
66%
Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)
41%
Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niendorfer TSV U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.13 · 31 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.77 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 1.00 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 1.89

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.42 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more
33%
level
20%
Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more
47%

Chemnitzer FC U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chemnitzer FC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Niendorfer TSV U19 host Chemnitzer FC U19

April 25, 2020: Niendorfer TSV U19 take on Chemnitzer FC U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Niendorfer TSV U19 host Chemnitzer FC U19 at Rasenplatz Steinwiesenweg 1.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.