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Nielba Wągrowiec vs Starogard Gdański — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Nielba Wągrowiec
Nielba Wągrowiec
FT
0 – 2
Starogard Gdański
Starogard Gdański
10/24/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nielba Wągrowiec45%
×Draw23%
Starogard Gdański32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nielba Wągrowiec
1.79
Starogard Gdański
1.48

Nielba Wągrowiec creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 66 away

creates per match

Nielba Wągrowiec
2.12
Starogard Gdański
1.24

allows per match

Nielba Wągrowiec
1.71
Starogard Gdański
1.47

finishing

Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par
Starogard Gdański+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nielba Wągrowiec ↓

Starogard Gdański →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Nielba Wągrowiec or draw
68%
Nielba Wągrowiec or Starogard Gdański
77%
Draw or Starogard Gdański
55%

Winning margin

Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+
24%
Starogard Gdański wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals
83%
Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals
53%
Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals
26%
Starogard Gdański 1+ goals
77%
Starogard Gdański 2+ goals
43%
Starogard Gdański 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)
58%
Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nielba Wągrowiec at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Starogard Gdański away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.12 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.79

Starogard Gdański attack 1.24 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nielba Wągrowiec scores more
45%
level
23%
Starogard Gdański scores more
32%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nielba Wągrowiec vs Starogard Gdański

Starogard Gdański beat Nielba Wągrowiec 2-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka in Wągrowiec.