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Nielba Wągrowiec vs Sokół Kleczew — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Nielba Wągrowiec
Nielba Wągrowiec
FT
2 – 3
Sokół Kleczew
Sokół Kleczew
3/20/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nielba Wągrowiec43%
×Draw23%
Sokół Kleczew35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nielba Wągrowiec
1.79
Sokół Kleczew
1.59

Nielba Wągrowiec creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 84 away

creates per match

Nielba Wągrowiec
2.12
Sokół Kleczew
1.48

allows per match

Nielba Wągrowiec
1.71
Sokół Kleczew
1.46

finishing

Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par
Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nielba Wągrowiec ↓

Sokół Kleczew →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Nielba Wągrowiec or draw
65%
Nielba Wągrowiec or Sokół Kleczew
77%
Draw or Sokół Kleczew
57%

Winning margin

Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+
23%
Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals
83%
Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals
53%
Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals
26%
Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals
80%
Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals
47%
Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)
55%
Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nielba Wągrowiec at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Sokół Kleczew away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.46 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.12 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.48 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nielba Wągrowiec scores more
43%
level
23%
Sokół Kleczew scores more
35%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Nielba Wągrowiec 2–3 Sokół Kleczew

Sokół Kleczew beat Nielba Wągrowiec 3-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka in Wągrowiec.