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Nielba Wągrowiec vs Mieszko Gniezno — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Nielba Wągrowiec
Nielba Wągrowiec
FT
8 – 1
Mieszko Gniezno
Mieszko Gniezno
6/12/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nielba Wągrowiec78%
×Draw13%
Mieszko Gniezno9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nielba Wągrowiec
3.18
Mieszko Gniezno
1.06

Nielba Wągrowiec creates 200% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Nielba Wągrowiec
2.12
Mieszko Gniezno
0.41

allows per match

Nielba Wągrowiec
1.71
Mieszko Gniezno
4.24

finishing

Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par
Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nielba Wągrowiec ↓

Mieszko Gniezno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Nielba Wągrowiec or draw
91%
Nielba Wągrowiec or Mieszko Gniezno
87%
Draw or Mieszko Gniezno
22%

Winning margin

Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+
59%
Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals
96%
Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals
82%
Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals
60%
Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals
65%
Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals
29%
Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)
89%
Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nielba Wągrowiec at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Mieszko Gniezno away — creates 0.41, concedes 4.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.12 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 3.18

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.41 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Nielba Wągrowiec scores more
78%
level
13%
Mieszko Gniezno scores more
9%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Nielba Wągrowiec 8–1 Mieszko Gniezno

Nielba Wągrowiec beat Mieszko Gniezno 8-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka in Wągrowiec.