Nielba Wągrowiec 1–1 Flota Świnoujście

Nielba Wągrowiec

FT

1 – 1

Flota Świnoujście

11/11/2020

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nielba Wągrowiec45%

×Draw23%

Flota Świnoujście33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nielba WągrowiecExpected goals in this matchFlota Świnoujście

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.54

Nielba Wągrowiec

1.84

Flota Świnoujście

1.54

Nielba Wągrowiec creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

2.12

creates per match

1.38

1.71

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Nielba Wągrowiec

2.12

Flota Świnoujście

1.38

allows per match

Nielba Wągrowiec

1.71

Flota Świnoujście

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par

Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nielba Wągrowiec ↓

Flota Świnoujście →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Nielba Wągrowiec or draw

67%

Nielba Wągrowiec or Flota Świnoujście

77%

Draw or Flota Świnoujście

55%

Winning margin

Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+

24%

Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals

84%

Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals

55%

Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals

28%

Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals

79%

Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals

45%

Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)

58%

Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nielba Wągrowiec at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Flota Świnoujście away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.12 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.84

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.38 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nielba Wągrowiec scores more

45%

level

23%

Flota Świnoujście scores more

33%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff