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Nieciecza vs Znicz Pruszków — I Liga 2018

Nieciecza
Nieciecza
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
8/27/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 6Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Nieciecza48%
×Draw25%
Znicz Pruszków26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nieciecza
1.57
Znicz Pruszków
1.09

Nieciecza creates 44% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 51 away

creates per match

Nieciecza
1.72
Znicz Pruszków
1.10

allows per match

Nieciecza
1.08
Znicz Pruszków
1.43

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par
Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Znicz Pruszków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw
74%
Nieciecza or Znicz Pruszków
75%
Draw or Znicz Pruszków
52%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+
25%
Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals
79%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
46%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
21%
Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
66%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
30%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)
65%
Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.08 · 103 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.72 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.10 + Nieciecza defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nieciecza scores more
48%
level
25%
Znicz Pruszków scores more
26%

Nieciecza at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nieciecza vs Znicz Pruszków

Nieciecza beat Znicz Pruszków 1-0 in I Liga on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica in Nieciecza.