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Nieciecza vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — Friendlies Clubs 2024

Nieciecza
Nieciecza
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
7/8/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nieciecza56%
×Draw23%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nieciecza
1.77
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.99

Nieciecza creates 79% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Nieciecza
2.75
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.60

allows per match

Nieciecza
0.38
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.80

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par
Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw
79%
Nieciecza or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
77%
Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
44%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+
31%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals
83%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
53%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
26%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
63%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
26%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)
73%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 2.75 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.60 + Nieciecza defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Nieciecza scores more
56%
level
23%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
21%

Nieciecza at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Nieciecza 0–0 Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Nieciecza and Sandecja Nowy Sącz drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 8, 2022.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.