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Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów — I Liga 2025

Nieciecza
Nieciecza
Preview
16:00
Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
11/7/2026I LigaI Liga · Round 14Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza
53%
Nieciecza
model favours
53%25%22%

Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nieciecza53%
×Draw25%
Chrobry Głogów22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nieciecza
1.64
Chrobry Głogów
0.96

Nieciecza creates 71% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 34 away

creates per match

Nieciecza
1.75
Chrobry Głogów
0.91

allows per match

Nieciecza
1.00
Chrobry Głogów
1.53

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Chrobry Głogów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw
78%
Nieciecza or Chrobry Głogów
75%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów
47%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+
29%
Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals
81%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
49%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
23%
Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
62%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
25%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)
71%
Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.75 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.64

Chrobry Głogów attack 0.91 + Nieciecza defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nieciecza scores more
53%
level
25%
Chrobry Głogów scores more
22%

Nieciecza at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
  • 83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Nieciecza and Chrobry Głogów have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Nieciecza
WWWWW
Głogów
WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Nieciecza host Chrobry Głogów

November 7, 2026: Nieciecza take on Chrobry Głogów in I Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Nieciecza host Chrobry Głogów at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.