Chrobry Głogów 0–4 Nieciecza: Result & Stats

Chrobry Głogów

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Nieciecza

M. Ambrosiewicz 90+2'

W. Jakubik 79', 55'

K. Karasek 72' (pen)

7/27/2024

I Liga · Round 2Stadion GOS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Chrobry Głogów18%

×Draw20%

Nieciecza61%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchNieciecza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

2.11

Chrobry Głogów

1.05

Nieciecza

2.11

Nieciecza creates 101% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 7 away

1.40

creates per match

2.71

1.51

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.40

Nieciecza

2.71

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.51

Nieciecza

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Nieciecza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

39%

Chrobry Głogów or Nieciecza

80%

Draw or Nieciecza

82%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

6%

Nieciecza wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

65%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

28%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

9%

Nieciecza 1+ goals

88%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

62%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

23%

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 43 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 2.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.40 + Nieciecza defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.05

Nieciecza attack 2.71 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

18%

level

20%

Nieciecza scores more

61%

Nieciecza at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'

J. Kuzdra

53'

K. Zapolnik← M. Faßbender

55'

W. Jakubik

57'

K. Tabiś← P. Tupaj

57'

P. Szwedzik← M. Ozimek

63'

D. Hilbrycht← A. Trubeha

63'

K. Karasek← T. Zaviiskyi

70'

P. Szarek← M. Bougaidis

70'

S. Lewkot← R. Mandrysz

72'

K. KarasekPenalty

73'

D. Hilbrycht

74'

S. Lewkot

78'

E. Marcinkowski← S. Bonecki

79'

W. Jakubik

86'

J. Różycki← W. Jakubik

90+2'

M. Ambrosiewicz

Chrobry

Nieciecza

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Plewnia

57'▲K. Tabiś←▼P. Tupaj

57'▲P. Szwedzik←▼M. Ozimek

70'▲P. Szarek←▼M. Bougaidis

70'▲S. Lewkot←▼R. Mandrysz

78'▲E. Marcinkowski←▼S. Bonecki

Chrobry Głogów substitutes

TabiśSzwedzikSzarekLewkotMarcinkowskiSzczutowskiBielArndtMalczuk

Manager: M. Brosz

53'▲K. Zapolnik←▼M. Faßbender

63'▲D. Hilbrycht←▼A. Trubeha

63'▲K. Karasek←▼T. Zaviiskyi

86'▲J. Różycki←▼W. Jakubik

Nieciecza substitutes

ZapolnikHilbrychtKarasekRóżyckiFarbiszewskiWacławekCieslaNowakowskiMleczko

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów vs Nieciecza

Nieciecza beat Chrobry Głogów 4-0 in I Liga on July 27, 2024.

Goals: W. Jakubik (55', 79'), K. Karasek (72' pen), M. Ambrosiewicz (90+2').

The match was played at Stadion GOS in Głogów.

Chrobry Głogów vs Nieciecza — I Liga 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów vs Nieciecza