Nice 1–3 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Nice

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Slavia Praha

A. Gouiri 60'

A. Sima 75'

P. Olayinka 64'

O. Lingr 14'

11/26/2020

UEFA Europa League · Group C - 4Allianz Riviera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nice31%

×Draw24%

Slavia Praha45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiceExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.72

Nice

1.40

Slavia Praha

1.72

Slavia Praha creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.29

creates per match

1.57

1.86

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Nice

1.29

Slavia Praha

1.57

allows per match

Nice

1.86

Slavia Praha

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nice+0.00on par

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nice ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Nice or draw

55%

Nice or Slavia Praha

76%

Draw or Slavia Praha

69%

Winning margin

Nice wins by 2+

14%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Nice 1+ goals

75%

Nice 2+ goals

41%

Nice 3+ goals

17%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

82%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

51%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Nice (draw refunded)

41%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nice at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nice attack 1.29 + Slavia Praha defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Slavia Praha attack 1.57 + Nice defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nice scores more

31%

level

24%

Slavia Praha scores more

45%

Slavia Praha at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Y. Atal

Nice · D

7.9

Match Events

14'

40'

43'

53'

55'

60'

63'

64'

P. Olayinka↳ P. Ševčík

66'

D. Ndoye← Y. Atal

72'

H. Boudaoui← A. Claude Maurice

74'

Morgan Schneiderlin

75'

A. Sima↳ T. Holeš

77'

Robson Bambu

78'

A. Pelmard← A. Gouiri

82'

L. Provod← J. Kuchta

87'

S. Tecl← A. Sima

87'

O. Karafiát← T. Holeš

88'

T. Malinský← P. Olayinka

90'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiceSlavia

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots15

8Corners6

21Fouls20

Shots

10Total Shots15

3On Target5

7Off Target5

0Blocked5

6Inside Box9

4Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

431Total Passes355

364Accurate Passes279

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls20

6Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3