Nice 3–1 Sheriff Tiraspol: Result & Stats

Nice

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sheriff Tiraspol

3/16/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16Allianz Riviera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nice60%

×Draw21%

Sheriff Tiraspol20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiceExpected goals in this matchSheriff Tiraspol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.13

Nice

2.13

Sheriff Tiraspol

1.13

Nice creates 88% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.75

creates per match

1.00

1.25

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Nice

1.75

Sheriff Tiraspol

1.00

allows per match

Nice

1.25

Sheriff Tiraspol

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nice+0.00on par

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nice ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Nice or draw

80%

Nice or Sheriff Tiraspol

79%

Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol

40%

Winning margin

Nice wins by 2+

37%

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nice 1+ goals

88%

Nice 2+ goals

63%

Nice 3+ goals

35%

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals

68%

Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals

31%

Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nice (draw refunded)

75%

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nice at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nice attack 1.75 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 1.00 + Nice defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Nice scores more

60%

level

21%

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more

20%

Nice at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff