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Nice vs Montpellier — Ligue 1 2018

Nice
Nice
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Montpellier
Montpellier
1/11/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 18Allianz Riviera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Nice43%
×Draw26%
Montpellier32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nice
1.48
Montpellier
1.24

Nice creates 19% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 91 away

creates per match

Nice
1.41
Montpellier
1.30

allows per match

Nice
1.18
Montpellier
1.55

finishing

Nice+0.00on par
Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nice ↓

Montpellier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nice or draw
68%
Nice or Montpellier
74%
Draw or Montpellier
57%

Winning margin

Nice wins by 2+
21%
Montpellier wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nice 1+ goals
77%
Nice 2+ goals
43%
Nice 3+ goals
19%
Montpellier 1+ goals
71%
Montpellier 2+ goals
35%
Montpellier 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nice (draw refunded)
57%
Montpellier (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nice at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.18 · 126 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nice attack 1.41 + Montpellier defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Montpellier attack 1.30 + Nice defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nice scores more
43%
level
26%
Montpellier scores more
32%

Nice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nice vs Montpellier

Nice beat Montpellier 6-1 in Ligue 1 on January 11, 2023.

The match was played at Allianz Riviera in Nice.