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Nicaragua W vs Peru W — Friendlies Women 2026

Nicaragua W
Nicaragua W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Peru W
Peru W
Y. Flores 45'
6/2/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nicaragua W76%
×Draw19%
Peru W5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nicaragua W
1.85
Peru W
0.28

Nicaragua W creates 561% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 21 away

creates per match

Nicaragua W
1.14
Peru W
0.57

allows per match

Nicaragua W
0.00
Peru W
2.57

finishing

Nicaragua W+0.00on par
Peru W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

79%No
  • No79
  • Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nicaragua W ↓

Peru W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–13%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–020%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–14%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Nicaragua W or draw
95%
Nicaragua W or Peru W
81%
Draw or Peru W
24%

Winning margin

Nicaragua W wins by 2+
48%
Peru W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Nicaragua W 1+ goals
84%
Nicaragua W 2+ goals
55%
Nicaragua W 3+ goals
28%
Peru W 1+ goals
24%
Peru W 2+ goals
3%
Peru W 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Nicaragua W (draw refunded)
94%
Peru W (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nicaragua W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.00 · 7 matches

Peru W away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.57 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nicaragua W attack 1.14 + Peru W defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.85

Peru W attack 0.57 + Nicaragua W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Nicaragua W scores more
76%
level
19%
Peru W scores more
5%

Nicaragua W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Nicaragua W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Y. Flores

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Nicaragua W 1–0 Peru W

Nicaragua W beat Peru W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on June 2, 2024.

Goals: Y. Flores (45').

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Fútbol in Managua.