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Niarry Tally vs Pikine — Ligue 1 2019

Niarry Tally
Niarry Tally
FT
1 – 3
Pikine
Pikine
2/20/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 8Stade Municipal De Mbao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Niarry Tally36%
×Draw34%
Pikine29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niarry Tally
0.89
Pikine
0.77

Niarry Tally creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 88 away

creates per match

Niarry Tally
0.89
Pikine
0.75

allows per match

Niarry Tally
0.79
Pikine
0.89

finishing

Niarry Tally+0.00on par
Pikine+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niarry Tally ↓

Pikine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Niarry Tally or draw
71%
Niarry Tally or Pikine
66%
Draw or Pikine
64%

Winning margin

Niarry Tally wins by 2+
13%
Pikine wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Niarry Tally 1+ goals
59%
Niarry Tally 2+ goals
22%
Niarry Tally 3+ goals
6%
Pikine 1+ goals
54%
Pikine 2+ goals
18%
Pikine 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Niarry Tally (draw refunded)
55%
Pikine (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niarry Tally at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Pikine away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.89 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niarry Tally attack 0.89 + Pikine defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Pikine attack 0.75 + Niarry Tally defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Niarry Tally scores more
36%
level
34%
Pikine scores more
29%

Niarry Tally at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Niarry Tally will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niarry Tally vs Pikine

Pikine beat Niarry Tally 3-1 in Ligue 1 on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal De Mbao in Dakar.