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Niarry Tally vs CNEPS Excellence — Ligue 1 2019

Niarry Tally
Niarry Tally
FT
1 – 0
CNEPS Excellence
CNEPS Excellence
3/14/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade Amadou Barry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Niarry Tally48%
×Draw30%
CNEPS Excellence21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niarry Tally
1.21
CNEPS Excellence
0.70

Niarry Tally creates 73% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 45 away

creates per match

Niarry Tally
0.94
CNEPS Excellence
0.56

allows per match

Niarry Tally
0.83
CNEPS Excellence
1.49

finishing

Niarry Tally+0.00on par
CNEPS Excellence+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niarry Tally ↓

CNEPS Excellence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Niarry Tally or draw
79%
Niarry Tally or CNEPS Excellence
70%
Draw or CNEPS Excellence
52%

Winning margin

Niarry Tally wins by 2+
22%
CNEPS Excellence wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Niarry Tally 1+ goals
70%
Niarry Tally 2+ goals
34%
Niarry Tally 3+ goals
12%
CNEPS Excellence 1+ goals
50%
CNEPS Excellence 2+ goals
16%
CNEPS Excellence 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Niarry Tally (draw refunded)
69%
CNEPS Excellence (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niarry Tally at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

CNEPS Excellence away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niarry Tally attack 0.94 + CNEPS Excellence defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.21

CNEPS Excellence attack 0.56 + Niarry Tally defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Niarry Tally scores more
48%
level
30%
CNEPS Excellence scores more
21%

Niarry Tally at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Niarry Tally will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Niarry Tally 1–0 CNEPS Excellence

Niarry Tally beat CNEPS Excellence 1-0 in Ligue 1 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Amadou Barry in Guédiawaye.