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Ngom Ajdabiya vs Al Ta'awon — Premier League 2019

Ngom Ajdabiya
Ngom Ajdabiya
FT
2 – 2
Al Ta'awon
Al Ta'awon
7/7/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ngom Ajdabiya31%
×Draw29%
Al Ta'awon41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ngom Ajdabiya
1.02
Al Ta'awon
1.23

Al Ta'awon creates 21% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 53 away

creates per match

Ngom Ajdabiya
0.55
Al Ta'awon
1.02

allows per match

Ngom Ajdabiya
1.45
Al Ta'awon
1.49

finishing

Ngom Ajdabiya+0.00on par
Al Ta'awon+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngom Ajdabiya ↓

Al Ta'awon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ngom Ajdabiya or draw
59%
Ngom Ajdabiya or Al Ta'awon
71%
Draw or Al Ta'awon
69%

Winning margin

Ngom Ajdabiya wins by 2+
11%
Al Ta'awon wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ngom Ajdabiya 1+ goals
64%
Ngom Ajdabiya 2+ goals
27%
Ngom Ajdabiya 3+ goals
8%
Al Ta'awon 1+ goals
71%
Al Ta'awon 2+ goals
35%
Al Ta'awon 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ngom Ajdabiya (draw refunded)
43%
Al Ta'awon (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngom Ajdabiya at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Al Ta'awon away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngom Ajdabiya attack 0.55 + Al Ta'awon defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.02

Al Ta'awon attack 1.02 + Ngom Ajdabiya defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ngom Ajdabiya scores more
31%
level
29%
Al Ta'awon scores more
41%

Al Ta'awon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Ta'awon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ngom Ajdabiya vs Al Ta'awon

Ngom Ajdabiya and Al Ta'awon drew 2-2 in Premier League on July 7, 2021.