Ngom Ajdabiya 0–2 Al Ahli Benghazi: Result & Stats

Ngom Ajdabiya

FT

0 – 2

Al Ahli Benghazi

7/15/2021

Premier League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ngom Ajdabiya16%

×Draw27%

Al Ahli Benghazi57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ngom AjdabiyaExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Benghazi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.65

1.47

Ngom Ajdabiya

0.65

Al Ahli Benghazi

1.47

Al Ahli Benghazi creates 126% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 73 away

0.55

creates per match

1.49

1.45

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Ngom Ajdabiya

0.55

Al Ahli Benghazi

1.49

allows per match

Ngom Ajdabiya

1.45

Al Ahli Benghazi

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ngom Ajdabiya+0.00on par

Al Ahli Benghazi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngom Ajdabiya ↓

Al Ahli Benghazi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–118%

0–213%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ngom Ajdabiya or draw

43%

Ngom Ajdabiya or Al Ahli Benghazi

73%

Draw or Al Ahli Benghazi

84%

Winning margin

Ngom Ajdabiya wins by 2+

4%

Al Ahli Benghazi wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Ngom Ajdabiya 1+ goals

48%

Ngom Ajdabiya 2+ goals

14%

Ngom Ajdabiya 3+ goals

3%

Al Ahli Benghazi 1+ goals

77%

Al Ahli Benghazi 2+ goals

43%

Al Ahli Benghazi 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ngom Ajdabiya (draw refunded)

22%

Al Ahli Benghazi (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngom Ajdabiya at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Al Ahli Benghazi away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.75 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngom Ajdabiya attack 0.55 + Al Ahli Benghazi defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.65

Al Ahli Benghazi attack 1.49 + Ngom Ajdabiya defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ngom Ajdabiya scores more

16%

level

27%

Al Ahli Benghazi scores more

57%

Al Ahli Benghazi at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al Ahli Benghazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff