Ngezi Platinum 1–1 Manica Diamonds: Result & Stats

Ngezi Platinum

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Manica Diamonds

T. Chamboko 30'

S. Ndlovu 87'

6/14/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 15Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Ngezi Platinum53%

×Draw28%

Manica Diamonds19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ngezi PlatinumExpected goals in this matchManica Diamonds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.67

Ngezi Platinum

1.35

Manica Diamonds

0.67

Ngezi Platinum creates 101% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 96 away

1.60

creates per match

0.69

0.65

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Ngezi Platinum

1.60

Manica Diamonds

0.69

allows per match

Ngezi Platinum

0.65

Manica Diamonds

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ngezi Platinum+0.00on par

Manica Diamonds+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngezi Platinum ↓

Manica Diamonds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ngezi Platinum or draw

81%

Ngezi Platinum or Manica Diamonds

72%

Draw or Manica Diamonds

47%

Winning margin

Ngezi Platinum wins by 2+

26%

Manica Diamonds wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ngezi Platinum 1+ goals

74%

Ngezi Platinum 2+ goals

39%

Ngezi Platinum 3+ goals

15%

Manica Diamonds 1+ goals

49%

Manica Diamonds 2+ goals

15%

Manica Diamonds 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ngezi Platinum (draw refunded)

74%

Manica Diamonds (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngezi Platinum at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.65 · 103 matches

Manica Diamonds away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngezi Platinum attack 1.60 + Manica Diamonds defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

Manica Diamonds attack 0.69 + Ngezi Platinum defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ngezi Platinum scores more

53%

level

28%

Manica Diamonds scores more

19%

Ngezi Platinum at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ngezi Platinum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

T. Chamboko

87'

S. Ndlovu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff