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Ngezi Platinum vs Hwange — Premier Soccer League 2026

Ngezi Platinum
Ngezi Platinum
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hwange
Hwange
7/1/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 13Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Ngezi Platinum58%
×Draw26%
Hwange15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ngezi Platinum
1.47
Hwange
0.61

Ngezi Platinum creates 141% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 52 away

creates per match

Ngezi Platinum
1.56
Hwange
0.60

allows per match

Ngezi Platinum
0.63
Hwange
1.37

finishing

Ngezi Platinum+0.00on par
Hwange+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngezi Platinum ↓

Hwange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ngezi Platinum or draw
85%
Ngezi Platinum or Hwange
74%
Draw or Hwange
42%

Winning margin

Ngezi Platinum wins by 2+
30%
Hwange wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ngezi Platinum 1+ goals
77%
Ngezi Platinum 2+ goals
43%
Ngezi Platinum 3+ goals
18%
Hwange 1+ goals
46%
Hwange 2+ goals
13%
Hwange 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ngezi Platinum (draw refunded)
79%
Hwange (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngezi Platinum at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.63 · 97 matches

Hwange away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngezi Platinum attack 1.56 + Hwange defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.47

Hwange attack 0.60 + Ngezi Platinum defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ngezi Platinum scores more
58%
level
26%
Hwange scores more
15%

Ngezi Platinum at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ngezi Platinum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ngezi Platinum vs Hwange

Ngezi Platinum beat Hwange 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on July 1, 2023.

The match was played at Baobab Stadium in Ngezi.