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Ngezi Platinum vs Green Fuel — Premier Soccer League 2026

Ngezi Platinum
Ngezi Platinum
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Green Fuel
Green Fuel
3/8/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 2Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ngezi Platinum57%
×Draw28%
Green Fuel16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ngezi Platinum
1.40
Green Fuel
0.59

Ngezi Platinum creates 137% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 51 away

creates per match

Ngezi Platinum
1.56
Green Fuel
0.55

allows per match

Ngezi Platinum
0.63
Green Fuel
1.24

finishing

Ngezi Platinum+0.00on par
Green Fuel+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngezi Platinum ↓

Green Fuel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ngezi Platinum or draw
84%
Ngezi Platinum or Green Fuel
72%
Draw or Green Fuel
43%

Winning margin

Ngezi Platinum wins by 2+
29%
Green Fuel wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ngezi Platinum 1+ goals
75%
Ngezi Platinum 2+ goals
41%
Ngezi Platinum 3+ goals
17%
Green Fuel 1+ goals
45%
Green Fuel 2+ goals
12%
Green Fuel 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ngezi Platinum (draw refunded)
78%
Green Fuel (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngezi Platinum at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.63 · 97 matches

Green Fuel away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngezi Platinum attack 1.56 + Green Fuel defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Green Fuel attack 0.55 + Ngezi Platinum defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ngezi Platinum scores more
57%
level
28%
Green Fuel scores more
16%

Ngezi Platinum at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ngezi Platinum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Ngezi Platinum 1–0 Green Fuel

Ngezi Platinum beat Green Fuel 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Baobab Stadium in Ngezi.