Ngezi Platinum 3–1 Cranborne Bullets

Ngezi Platinum

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Cranborne Bullets

11/18/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 33Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ngezi Platinum56%

×Draw27%

Cranborne Bullets17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ngezi PlatinumExpected goals in this matchCranborne Bullets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.67

Ngezi Platinum

1.44

Cranborne Bullets

0.67

Ngezi Platinum creates 115% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 34 away

1.56

creates per match

0.71

0.63

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Ngezi Platinum

1.56

Cranborne Bullets

0.71

allows per match

Ngezi Platinum

0.63

Cranborne Bullets

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ngezi Platinum+0.00on par

Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngezi Platinum ↓

Cranborne Bullets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ngezi Platinum or draw

83%

Ngezi Platinum or Cranborne Bullets

73%

Draw or Cranborne Bullets

44%

Winning margin

Ngezi Platinum wins by 2+

28%

Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ngezi Platinum 1+ goals

76%

Ngezi Platinum 2+ goals

42%

Ngezi Platinum 3+ goals

18%

Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals

49%

Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals

15%

Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ngezi Platinum (draw refunded)

76%

Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngezi Platinum at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.63 · 97 matches

Cranborne Bullets away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngezi Platinum attack 1.56 + Cranborne Bullets defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.44

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.71 + Ngezi Platinum defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ngezi Platinum scores more

56%

level

27%

Cranborne Bullets scores more

17%

Ngezi Platinum at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ngezi Platinum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff