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Ngaoundéré vs Unisport Bafang — Elite Two 2020

Ngaoundéré
Ngaoundéré
CANC
00:00
Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
5/24/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ngaoundéré36%
×Draw28%
Unisport Bafang36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ngaoundéré
1.17
Unisport Bafang
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 38 away

creates per match

Ngaoundéré
1.29
Unisport Bafang
1.05

allows per match

Ngaoundéré
1.29
Unisport Bafang
1.05

finishing

Ngaoundéré+0.00on par
Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngaoundéré ↓

Unisport Bafang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ngaoundéré or draw
64%
Ngaoundéré or Unisport Bafang
72%
Draw or Unisport Bafang
64%

Winning margin

Ngaoundéré wins by 2+
15%
Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ngaoundéré 1+ goals
69%
Ngaoundéré 2+ goals
33%
Ngaoundéré 3+ goals
11%
Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
69%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
33%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ngaoundéré (draw refunded)
50%
Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngaoundéré at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngaoundéré attack 1.29 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Unisport Bafang attack 1.05 + Ngaoundéré defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ngaoundéré scores more
36%
level
28%
Unisport Bafang scores more
36%

Ngaoundéré at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ngaoundéré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ngaoundéré vs Unisport Bafang — Match Preview

Ngaoundéré face Unisport Bafang on May 24, 2022 in this Elite Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.