Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ngaoundéré vs Matelots — Elite Two 2020

Ngaoundéré
Ngaoundéré
FT
2 – 1
Matelots
Matelots
4/9/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ngaoundéré62%
×Draw21%
Matelots17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ngaoundéré
2.06
Matelots
0.98

Ngaoundéré creates 110% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ngaoundéré
1.29
Matelots
0.67

allows per match

Ngaoundéré
1.29
Matelots
2.83

finishing

Ngaoundéré+0.00on par
Matelots+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngaoundéré ↓

Matelots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ngaoundéré or draw
83%
Ngaoundéré or Matelots
79%
Draw or Matelots
38%

Winning margin

Ngaoundéré wins by 2+
38%
Matelots wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ngaoundéré 1+ goals
87%
Ngaoundéré 2+ goals
61%
Ngaoundéré 3+ goals
34%
Matelots 1+ goals
62%
Matelots 2+ goals
26%
Matelots 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ngaoundéré (draw refunded)
78%
Matelots (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngaoundéré at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Matelots away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngaoundéré attack 1.29 + Matelots defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.06

Matelots attack 0.67 + Ngaoundéré defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ngaoundéré scores more
62%
level
21%
Matelots scores more
17%

Ngaoundéré at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ngaoundéré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Ngaoundéré 2–1 Matelots

Ngaoundéré beat Matelots 2-1 in Elite Two on April 9, 2021.