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Ngaoundéré vs FAP — Elite Two 2020

Ngaoundéré
Ngaoundéré
CANC
00:00
FAP
FAP
5/14/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ngaoundéré38%
×Draw26%
FAP36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ngaoundéré
1.36
FAP
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 50 away

creates per match

Ngaoundéré
1.29
FAP
1.32

allows per match

Ngaoundéré
1.29
FAP
1.44

finishing

Ngaoundéré+0.00on par
FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngaoundéré ↓

FAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ngaoundéré or draw
64%
Ngaoundéré or FAP
74%
Draw or FAP
62%

Winning margin

Ngaoundéré wins by 2+
17%
FAP wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ngaoundéré 1+ goals
74%
Ngaoundéré 2+ goals
39%
Ngaoundéré 3+ goals
16%
FAP 1+ goals
73%
FAP 2+ goals
38%
FAP 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ngaoundéré (draw refunded)
52%
FAP (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngaoundéré at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

FAP away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.44 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngaoundéré attack 1.29 + FAP defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

FAP attack 1.32 + Ngaoundéré defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ngaoundéré scores more
38%
level
26%
FAP scores more
36%

Ngaoundéré at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ngaoundéré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ngaoundéré face FAP (Elite Two)

Elite Two returns with Ngaoundéré hosting FAP. Match starts May 14, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.