Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Newton Stewart vs Coldstream — FA Cup 2019

Newton Stewart
Newton Stewart
FT
1 – 3
Coldstream
Coldstream
8/28/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundBlairmount Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Newton Stewart34%
×Draw20%
Coldstream46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newton Stewart
2.08
Coldstream
2.42

Coldstream creates 16% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Newton Stewart
0.67
Coldstream
1.50

allows per match

Newton Stewart
3.33
Coldstream
3.50

finishing

Newton Stewart+0.00on par
Coldstream+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newton Stewart ↓

Coldstream →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Newton Stewart or draw
54%
Newton Stewart or Coldstream
80%
Draw or Coldstream
66%

Winning margin

Newton Stewart wins by 2+
18%
Coldstream wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Newton Stewart 1+ goals
87%
Newton Stewart 2+ goals
61%
Newton Stewart 3+ goals
34%
Coldstream 1+ goals
91%
Coldstream 2+ goals
69%
Coldstream 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Newton Stewart (draw refunded)
43%
Coldstream (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newton Stewart at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Coldstream away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newton Stewart attack 0.67 + Coldstream defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Coldstream attack 1.50 + Newton Stewart defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Newton Stewart scores more
34%
level
20%
Coldstream scores more
46%

Coldstream at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Coldstream will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newton Stewart vs Coldstream

Coldstream beat Newton Stewart 3-1 in FA Cup on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Blairmount Park in Newton Stewart.