Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Newroz vs Zakho — Iraqi League 2025

Newroz
Newroz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zakho
Zakho
M. D. Ismael 76', 55'
H. Karim 21'
5/20/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Newroz36%
×Draw33%
Zakho31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newroz
0.95
Zakho
0.85

Newroz creates 12% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 39 away

creates per match

Newroz
1.00
Zakho
1.03

allows per match

Newroz
0.67
Zakho
0.90

finishing

Newroz+0.00on par
Zakho+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newroz ↓

Zakho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Newroz or draw
69%
Newroz or Zakho
67%
Draw or Zakho
64%

Winning margin

Newroz wins by 2+
13%
Zakho wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Newroz 1+ goals
61%
Newroz 2+ goals
25%
Newroz 3+ goals
7%
Zakho 1+ goals
57%
Zakho 2+ goals
21%
Zakho 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Newroz (draw refunded)
54%
Zakho (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newroz at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Zakho away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newroz attack 1.00 + Zakho defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Zakho attack 1.03 + Newroz defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Newroz scores more
36%
level
33%
Zakho scores more
31%

Newroz at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Newroz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
H. Karim
55'
M. D. Ismael
76'
M. D. Ismael

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newroz vs Zakho

Newroz beat Zakho 2-1 in Iraqi League on May 20, 2026.

Goals: H. Karim (21'), M. D. Ismael (55', 76').