Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Newroz vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2025

Newroz
Newroz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
5/26/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 32Sulaymaniyah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Newroz45%
×Draw26%
Naft Maysan30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newroz
1.50
Naft Maysan
1.18

Newroz creates 27% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 42 away

creates per match

Newroz
1.41
Naft Maysan
1.21

allows per match

Newroz
1.15
Naft Maysan
1.60

finishing

Newroz+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newroz ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Newroz or draw
70%
Newroz or Naft Maysan
74%
Draw or Naft Maysan
55%

Winning margin

Newroz wins by 2+
22%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Newroz 1+ goals
78%
Newroz 2+ goals
44%
Newroz 3+ goals
19%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
69%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
33%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Newroz (draw refunded)
60%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newroz at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newroz attack 1.41 + Naft Maysan defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Naft Maysan attack 1.21 + Newroz defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Newroz scores more
45%
level
26%
Naft Maysan scores more
30%

Newroz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Newroz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newroz vs Naft Maysan

Newroz and Naft Maysan drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sulaymaniyah Stadium in Sulaymaniyah.