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Newroz vs Baghdad — Iraqi League 2025

Newroz
Newroz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baghdad
Baghdad
J. Kareem 74'
12/22/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Newroz52%
×Draw25%
Baghdad24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newroz
1.65
Baghdad
1.03

Newroz creates 60% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 39 away

creates per match

Newroz
1.47
Baghdad
0.92

allows per match

Newroz
1.14
Baghdad
1.82

finishing

Newroz+0.00on par
Baghdad+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newroz ↓

Baghdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Newroz or draw
76%
Newroz or Baghdad
75%
Draw or Baghdad
48%

Winning margin

Newroz wins by 2+
28%
Baghdad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Newroz 1+ goals
81%
Newroz 2+ goals
49%
Newroz 3+ goals
23%
Baghdad 1+ goals
64%
Baghdad 2+ goals
28%
Baghdad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Newroz (draw refunded)
69%
Baghdad (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newroz at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

Baghdad away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.82 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newroz attack 1.47 + Baghdad defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.65

Baghdad attack 0.92 + Newroz defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Newroz scores more
52%
level
25%
Baghdad scores more
24%

Newroz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Newroz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

74'
J. Kareem

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newroz vs Baghdad

Baghdad beat Newroz 1-0 in Iraqi League on December 22, 2025.

Goals: J. Kareem (74').