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Newroz vs Al-Qasim — Iraqi League 2020

Newroz
Newroz
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
11/29/2022Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 7Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Newroz47%
×Draw26%
Al-Qasim26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newroz
1.46
Al-Qasim
1.01

Newroz creates 45% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 109 away

creates per match

Newroz
1.45
Al-Qasim
0.85

allows per match

Newroz
1.18
Al-Qasim
1.48

finishing

Newroz+0.00on par
Al-Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newroz ↓

Al-Qasim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Newroz or draw
74%
Newroz or Al-Qasim
74%
Draw or Al-Qasim
53%

Winning margin

Newroz wins by 2+
23%
Al-Qasim wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Newroz 1+ goals
77%
Newroz 2+ goals
43%
Newroz 3+ goals
18%
Al-Qasim 1+ goals
64%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
27%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Newroz (draw refunded)
64%
Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newroz at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.18 · 76 matches

Al-Qasim away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.48 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newroz attack 1.45 + Al-Qasim defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.46

Al-Qasim attack 0.85 + Newroz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Newroz scores more
47%
level
26%
Al-Qasim scores more
26%

Newroz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Newroz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Newroz 0–3 Al-Qasim

Al-Qasim beat Newroz 3-0 in Iraqi League on November 29, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Bagdad.