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Al-Qasim vs Newroz — Iraqi League 2025

Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Newroz
Newroz
M. Hussein 85', 71'
M. Ridha Jalil 68'
1/18/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Al-Qasim20%
×Draw23%
Newroz58%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qasim
0.97
Newroz
1.84

Newroz creates 90% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

creates per match

Al-Qasim
0.73
Newroz
1.29

allows per match

Al-Qasim
2.40
Newroz
1.21

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par
Newroz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Newroz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw
42%
Al-Qasim or Newroz
77%
Draw or Newroz
80%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+
7%
Newroz wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals
62%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
25%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
7%
Newroz 1+ goals
84%
Newroz 2+ goals
55%
Newroz 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
25%
Newroz (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

Newroz away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.73 + Newroz defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Newroz attack 1.29 + Al-Qasim defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al-Qasim scores more
20%
level
23%
Newroz scores more
58%

Newroz at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Newroz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'
M. Ridha Jalil↳ Rwa
71'
M. Hussein↳ M. Al Hayek
85'
M. Hussein↳ Claudio Maradona

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Qasim vs Newroz

Newroz beat Al-Qasim 3-0 in Iraqi League on January 18, 2026.

Goals: M. Ridha Jalil (68'), M. Hussein (71', 85').